Fraser sockeye vs farmed salmon

Fewer salmon farms = more wild salmon

After nearly two decades of steep decline, the Fraser sockeye are returning in good numbers again this year.  This is very good news and if we value these fish we need to know what changed, what reversed their decline? What has stopped killing them?

Clearly, something good for salmon occurred the Pacific Ocean as runs throughout the entire Pacific Ocean thrived.

Washington State, June 2104

Alaska, July 2014

Russia, July 2014

Now, finally, BC has rejoined the ranks and is enjoying pretty strong runs of wild salmon too.  Small towns the length of the province and breadth of the Fraser River watershed, which covers most of BC, are benefiting from the food, commerce, money, and happiness returning salmon bring!

I am pleased to see a rebounding wild salmon population in the Fraser River. The past 20 years have really been tough on them.

This year's premium run is to be celebrated.  I postulate the reason for their success is the large reduction of open-net pen salmon farms and their threat of disease and sea lice on the migration route of Fraser sockeye.  The weight of evidence suggests the presence of salmon farms on the migration routes in and out of the Fraser River determines whether the sockeye will return.

The Decline

The Fraser sockeye became 'unpredictable' starting in the mid-1990s when something began killing them. The forecast for this year's run, made a few months ago illustrates just how unpredictable these fish have become. Government could only say that between 7 - 70 million sockeye would return.  Seventy million is the number that should have returned given the large number left the river and the enormous number of jacks observed last summer.  Jacks are males that mature a year early and so provide a sneak preview of  the size of their generation still feeding out in the open ocean. Seven million was given as the low end, because something has been killing that many Fraser sockeye in previous years and government scientists did not know if it might strike again. 

What we know

Page 100 of the Cohen Commission Final Report vol. 2 illustrates the situation. The steep decline since 1992 is why Canada spent $23 million on an inquiry into Canada's biggest wild salmon run, called the Cohen Commission.

After taking a long hard look at the situation, the Cohen Commission directed 11 out of its 75 recommendations at salmon farms.  Specifically, Justice Bruce Cohen recommended that Canada consider removing salmon farms from the Discovery Islands off Campbell River because those channels are so narrow they force close contact between farmed Atlantic salmon and wild Pacific salmon. 

Recommendation #18 - If at any time between now and September 30, 2020, the minister of fisheries and oceans determines that net-pen salmon farms in the Discovery Islands (fish health sub-zone 3-2) pose more than a minimal risk of serious harm to the health of migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon, he or she should promptly order that those salmon farms cease operations.

Recommendation #19 - On September 30, 2020, the minister of fisheries and oceans should prohibit net-pen salmon farming in the Discovery Islands (fish health sub-zone 3-2) unless he or she is satisfied that such farms pose at most a minimal risk of serious harm to the health of migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon. The minister’s decision should summarize the information relied on and include detailed reasons. The decision should be published on the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ website.

For reasons we may never fully know, this is exactly what happened. Salmon farms were not removed from the Discovery Islands, but they were drastically reduced in recent years.

In the first map below, you see the 26 salmon farm sites licenced by the Province of BC in the Discovery Islands.  The worst place on the BC coast to put salmon farms because 1/3 of all BC's wild salmon swim through those channels.

 

Below, we see that 14 of those salmon farms were operating in 2007 when the disasterous 2009 Fraser sockeye passed through this area and 10 million went 'missing'. 

In this map, we see only 8 salmon farms were operating when the 2014 Fraser sockeye went to sea (PCWSS survey) in 2012.  Marine Harvest, biggest salmon farmer in the world, made several public statements about why they reduced the number of salmon farms.

Note:  The sockeye salmon that returned in 2014 were eggs in fall of 2010, hatched in spring of 2011, reared for one year in lakes, went to sea in 2012 and returned in 2014.

There is no denying salmon farms have impact on young wild salmon. Cyrus Rocks salmon farm is the red dot closest to the bottom of the third map.

Note: sea lice not only eat young wild salmon to death, they can spread disease

 

Why did Marine Harvest reduce number of farm salmon in Discovery Islands?

In the fall of 2011, Marine Harvest went on TV to say they were reducing farm salmon production in the Discovery Islands for financial reasons.

 

In 2012, Marine Harvest's Annual General Report states the down-sizing was due to a parasite called Kudoa which liquifies salmon flesh a few days after harvest causing "customer claims" to get their money back.

"Kudoa is a typical customer claim. At 4Q11, Marine Harvest continued to report Kudoa challenges linked to the Campbell River area.... The company will concentrate production at the best sites, while other sites will be closed down in order to improve biological performance.” 

Whatever the real reason, a Times Colonist article confirmed "three million fewer Atlantic salmon smolts will be stocked this winter and the next season at six to seven farms in the Campbell River-Sayward area off the Island’s east coast." So there were fewer farms and fewer fish in those farms. 

Does fewer farm salmon = more wild salmon?

We know farming salmon with disease is done in BC, because I took Canada and Marine Harvest to court to try to stop this practice and they argued against me. I await the court's decision.

Sick fish generally release infectious pathogens.  More fish will release more disease particles and less fish will release less.  So fewer salmon farms can mean less exposure to disease for our wild salmon.  This is a significant point given that DFO scientist Dr. Miller found the dying Fraser sockeye were fighting a virus, while the ones that lived to spawn were not.

The pattern is so painfully clear it is hard to believe it continues to be ignored.

No matter how you slice it, the evidence suggests fewer salmon farms = more wild salmon. 

1. Wild salmon decline everywhere in the world when salmon farms appear.

2. The Fraser sockeye decline began with the arrival of salmon farms.

3. The Fraser sockeye run that does not swim through the farms, did not decline (see blog below).

4. DFO published several papers naming and reporting a new disease in most of the salmon farms in the Discovery Islands.  They found it could infect sockeye, but did nothing about it.

5. When a DFO scientist studying the dying Fraser sockeye found evidence of a virus matching the disease in the salmon farms her project was terminated and she was muzzled.

6. Since salmon farms have been reduced in the Discovery Islands, Fraser sockeye returns have increased.

7. The same thing happened when salmon farms were emptied to reduce sea lice on the Area 12 mainland pink salmon. The number of lice fell and the number of pink salmon rebounded (see blog below).

 

Only an agency fatally entrenched in protecting salmon farms would remain blind to this clear and consistent pattern.  Justice Cohen was wise to this: 

Recommendation #3 - The Government of Canada should remove from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ mandate the promotion of salmon farming as an industry and farmed salmon as a product.“when one government department (in this case DFO) has mandates both to conserve wild stocks and to promote the salmon-farming industry, there are circumstances in which it may find itself in a conflict of interest because of divided loyalties”

What now?

If we want big wild salmon runs to continue we need to know what went wrong for 18 years and what is going right now.  DFO needs to reassign Dr. Kristi Miller to read the immune systems of the Fraser sockeye.  Is the 2014 run fighting the same virus as previous runs, or are they free of it like their parents, which were the big run in 2010? 

Putting feedlots among wild animals is a bad idea, we know this from Avian flu.  It is time to stop this dirty, high-risk activity in our ocean if we are serious about wanting wild salmon. The evidence strongly suggests salmon farms are what have made the Fraser sockeye unpredictable.  Government has not considered disease on salmon farms when they run their models to predict how many Fraser sockeye will return.

Thank you Marine Harvest for getting your farm salmon out of  the Discovery Islands. I hope we can keep it this way.

Dear Premier of British Columbia,

Please do not issue Licences of Occupation to the salmon farms trying to expand in British Columbia. Wild salmon are much too important to the world to risk for a dirty industry that refuses to contain its waste and pollutes our oceans.

Sincerely,

YOU CAN SIGN HERE

 

Will the Fraser Sockeye Boom or Bust?

 

If 70 million Fraser sockeye return to BC in the summer of 2014, we will have the opportunity to learn what these sockeye need to survive.   They could tell us two things. First, that Fraser sockeye can survive the City of Vancouver, they swim through this highly urban and industrial environment twice in  their life cycle.  This is incredible and hopeful, it would mean they can live with us.  Second, a big return would tell us that there is some factor out there that can destroy a run or let it survive. 

If we want Fraser sockeye in the future we need to know why they are on a boom and bust cyle. What is killing them and what is allowing them to survive. Below is what we know before these runs are due to return.

 

The Fraser sockeye have become increasingly unpredictable since the mid-1990s.   Historically, variables like - how many went to sea, how big they were and sea surface temperature could be used to fairly accurately predict how many would return. 

To the north, in Alaska, sockeye salmon remain predictable.  When mathematical models stop working you know you have left something important out.  Something began affecting the Fraser sockeye in the early 1990s that became a dominant influence on whether Fraser sockeye would live or die.  The Canadian government called a federal inquiry, the Cohen Commission, to find out what made the Fraser sockeye decline for 18 years. Over 500,000 documents were collected, hundreds of hours of testimony given. The commission made 11 recommendations specifically aimed at salmon farms. Here is why. 

I have assembled the bare bones of the story here.  If you want to see more, download my report submitted and accepted by the Cohen Commissions despite attempts by government to block it. Download Morton report

Timing

The top graph shows the productivity of all Fraser sockeye grouped together, the red line, vs one run of Fraser sockeye, called the Harrison sockeye, the blue line.

Productivity is the number of salmon that return per spawner in the parent generation. These graphs are adapted from this report.  I added the black line, which is the year salmon farms appeared on the Fraser sockeye migration route.  There is a strong correlation between arrival time of salmon farms and the onset of the decline in most Fraser sockeye, but not in the Harrison.

What is different about the Harrison sockeye? First, the Harrison sockeye leave the river the same year they hatch.  So they go to sea at a much smaller more vulnerable size.  Second, they use a different migration route to reach ocean feeding grounds.

 

Observation #1 - the decline of the Fraser sockeye began when salmon farms were put on their migration route

Geography

Most juvenile Fraser sockeye leave the river and travel north between Vancouver Island and the mainland coast (red line).  Juvenile Harrison sockeye are not found in that area, they are found off west coast of Vancouver Island.  They are the blue line.(Tucker et al 2009)

The salmon that swim the red line enter narrow channels with salmon farms and they are in decline.  The salmon that swim the blue line, also pass salmon farms, but in a much bigger body of water, they are thriving.  Dilution is a significant factor is disease transmission. It is the difference between standing across a soccer field from someone with the flu, and standing in an elevator with 5 people with the flu.

Dr. Kyle Garver, fish virologist with Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) reports that during a viral outbreak, a salmon farm can produce 65 billion infectious viral particles per hour, filling the narrow waterways off Campbell River (Cohen Commission testimony).  It is fair to say the Fraser sockeye that swim past Campbell river were never exposed to viral loads like this before salmon farming.  In nature predators remove sick fish so they don't infect others.  Because salmon farmers use only nets to contain farmed salmon, all wastes pour over the Fraser sockeye as they come and go to sea. Whatever is in the farms has access to the bloodstream of the Fraser sockeye.

Observation #2 - only the sockeye that pass close by salmon farms declined

Immune system

Prespawn mortality is the death of an adult salmon on its spawning grounds, before it spawns. Historically, prespawn mortality occured when Fraser River water temperatures were high, but beginning in the mid - 1990s prespawn mortality became unpredictable. It flashed unpredictably hitting some runs and not others.  100% of the Cultus Lake sockeye died in prespawn mortality in 1999, 2000, 2001 (Lapointe, 2003). 

"Since 1995, an average of 58% and up to 95% of the Late run sockeye have died in PSM" Morton report

En-route mortality is when the adult salmon die somewhere in the river, before the spawning grounds

"By 2001, the en-route mortality was as high as 90% in some stocks and pre- spawning mortality ranged from 10 to 30% “The high levels of mortality prior to spawning have already threatened the viability of small late-run populations." (Lapointe, 2003).

 

No one could figure this out, DFO's field staff warned it was not due to high water temperature - see Timber Whitehouse, quotes in my report.  In 2005, Fisheries and Oceans tasked their own scientist, Dr. Kristi Miller, to run genomic profiling on them.  This is a cutting-edge, powerful new technique, that reads immune systems.  Switches turn on and off in reponse to different kinds of stress. Genomic profiling reads which switches are up or down regulated.  It would be like observing that one man picked up a fly-swatter and another man picked up a shot gun. It doesn't tell us exactly what the stressor is, but it tells us what to look for, insect or large predator.  With this tool, we could figure out exactly where wild salmon need relief, instead of blundering around fixing things that don't really matter to the salmon.  

Fisheries and Oceans was confident Miller's work would show Fraser sockeye were starving, that there was not enough food in the ocean and they were dying in the river simply because they ran out of fuel. But her work pointed squarely in a different direction.  The immune systems of the dying Fraser sockeye were fully engaged in fighting a virus.  The salmon that were spawning successfully were not fighting a virus. 

• 90% of the 2009 run of Fraser sockeye that vanished were fighting a virus.
• The Harrison sockeye, that survived very well, were not fighting the virus. 
• The 2010 sockeye that came back in very high numbers were not fighting a virus.

This was a remarkable finding, the first solid clue.  If we are serious about helping Fraser sockeye survive the virus has to be identified and contained it if possible.

Observation #3 it was discovered that extremely large numbers of Fraser sockeye were dying fighting a virus

What virus?

When Dr. Miller examined which switches were up-regulated in the dying sockeye the pattern matched response to retroviruses, cancer and leukemia... 

There is only one virus known that fits this profile, Salmon Luekemia virus. DFO discovered, named and published on this virus in CANCER RESEARCH in the 1990s.

Salmon leukemia virus was reported in most of the Chinook salmon farms on the Fraser sockeye migration route.

The virus was "widely distributed throughout the major salmon farming regions in British Columbia... in all but 1 of the 23 farms." Read paper

Fisheries and Oceans scientists reported the virus  could infect sockeye and Chinook.

“Evidence supporting the hypothesis that marine anemia is a spreading, infectious neopplastic disease could have profound regulatory effects on the salmon farming industry” (Stephens & Ribble 1995) But there was no regulatory response. The infected farms remained on the Fraser sockeye migration route (as well as other places in BC), even though DFO knew sockeye were highly susceptible and did nothing even when the Fraser sockeye tilted into unchecked decline.

The salmon farming industry could not survive the high losses to salmon leukemia virus and laregely shifted from raising Chinook salmon to raising Atlantic salmon, which were more resistant.  However, some Chinook farms remained on the Fraser sockeye migration route until 2008. Salmon leukemia critically damages the immune system of salmon and so they actually die of other diseases.  With the development of vaccines for BKD and Furunculosis, they could keep chinook salmon alive long enough to harvest them.  But, of course, the wild salmon and steelhead swimming by these farms were left unprotected and vulnerable.

DFO described the diagnostic symptoms for Salmon Leukemia - also called Plasmacytoid Leukemia, "hyperplasia of the interstitial cells of the caudal kidney" (Stephen & Ribble, 1997). This diagnostic for salmon leukemia virus is frequently reported in the BC farmed salmon health audit database see column 'AT' of the BC farmed salmon health audit data

When the Fraser sockeye finally hit bottom in 2009 a briefing was circulated within DFO that the collapse might be due to a virus, based on Miller's work, but they did not tell the public. When Miller was asked - was she going to confirm the identity of the virus in sockeye Dr. Miller testified at the Cohen Commission that DFO was "not comfortable" with her doing that:

 

I went to DFO to ID the virus, the fish health experts were not comfortable, - See more at: http://alexandramorton.typepad.com/alexandra_morton/2011/08/day-4-it-just-gets-more-interesting.html#sthash.vU1l3Tue.dpuf

I went to DFO to ID the virus, the fish health experts were not comfortable, - See more at: http://alexandramorton.typepad.com/alexandra_morton/2011/08/day-4-it-just-gets-more-interesting.html#sthash.vU1l3Tue.dpuf

Miller: "I went to DFO to ID the virus, the fish health experts were not comfortable" 

Miller: In my opinion we may be looking at a major fish health event

Miller: I have no funding to work on sockeye salmon at this time...

Miller: In my opinion we may be looking at a major fish health event

Miller: I have no funding to work on sockeye salmon at this time...

- See more at: http://alexandramorton.typepad.com/alexandra_morton/2011/08/day-4-it-just-gets-more-interesting.html#sthash.vU1l3Tue.dpuf

I went to DFO to ID the virus, the fish health experts were not comfortable, - See more at: http://alexandramorton.typepad.com/alexandra_morton/2011/08/day-4-it-just-gets-more-interesting.html#sthash.vU1l3Tue.dpuf

Then she  was muzzled.

 

 

More of Miller's testimony

 Observation #4 - when a DFO scientist found strong evidence that the Fraser sockeye were dying of a virus similar to a disease outbreak in salmon farms, DFO terminated the research.

Why did so many Fraser sockeye return in 2010?

Undoutably ocean conditions were excellent, but there are two other significant variables.

 

1.) Miller found the immune systems of the 2010 Fraser sockeye were not battling the virus that affected previous runs

 

2.) For the 1st time since the early 1990s the Chinook salmon farms with a history of salmon leukemia were almost completely removed from the narrow migration routes off Campbell River when this run went to sea in 2008.

 

 

  Data for this graph is from Cohen Commission CCI101187

 

Observation #5 when the salmon farms known to carry Salmon Leukemia virus were removed; traces of the virus vanished from the Fraser sockeye and a large number of Fraser sockeye returned.

2014

One of the reasons 70 million Fraser sockeye are forecast to return to BC in the summer of 2014 is because of the very large number of jacks observed in the summer of 2013.  "Jacks" are salmon that return a year earlier than the rest of their age-class.  They are nature's way of mixing genetics between generations.  These are the progeny of the highly successful 2010 generation.

If the 2014 Fraser sockeye return in large numbers we need to insist on genomic profiling of this run by Dr. Miller's lab and direct reporting from her on her findings.  There is no good reason not to do this and we stand to learn information that would allow us to reinstate the Fraser sockeye run more predicatably.

We know that at the end of 2011 Marine Harvest announced they were cutting back in BC. 

"To shave expenses, three million fewer Atlantic salmon smolts will be stocked this winter and the next season at six to seven farms in the Campbell River-Sayward area off the Island’s east coast, Roberts said. The winter period runs from November through to May."  

This is a dramatic decline in the number of salmon farms in the Campbell River area, also known as the Discovery Islands.  3,000,000 fewer Atlantic salmon at the "six to seven farms"... there are 27 salmon farm leases in that region, but only 6-7 will be stocked with 3,000,000 fewer fish. This is precisely what the Cohen Commission recommends, in fact, it says unless DFO can show that salmon farming does not cause impact on wild salmon, the farms in that area should "cease operations". See below for the actual wording it really does not get any clearer than this:

#18 - If at any time between now and September 30, 2020, the minister of fisheries and oceans determines that net-pen salmon farms in the Discovery Islands (fish health sub-zone 3-2) pose more than a minimal risk of serious harm to the health of migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon, he or she should promptly order that those salmon farms cease operations.

#19 - On September 30, 2020, the minister of fisheries and oceans should prohibit net-pen salmon farming in the Discovery Islands (fish health sub-zone 3-2) unless he or she is satisfied that such farms pose at most a minimal risk of serious harm to the health of migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon. The minister’s decision should summarize the information relied on and include detailed reasons. The decision should be published on the Department of Fisheries and Oceans’ website.

The 2014 Fraser sockeye run would not be the first time that wild salmon runs sky-rocketed after farm salmon numbers where drastically reduced. 

In this published scientific paper, my colleagues and I report on action taken by the BC government in  2003 to remove farm salmon from the migration routes of the Area 12 mainland pink salmon stock. As you can see from the figure, the number of juvenile sea lice (copepods) dropped dramatically when the farms were emptied in 2003 (triangles).

In this paper, renowned DFO scientist Dick Beamish reports "exceptional" survival of  this run of pink salmon that went to sea in 2003. While Beamish titles his paper to suggest wild and farmed salmon can co-exist, his data actually support the opposite, that when the farms were removed survival of wild salmon increased dramatically. I have never understood how Beamish reached his conclusion, that increase in pink salmon the one year salmon farmers were mandated to empty farms, means wild and farmed salmon can co-exist  - but that is DFO for you. What can I say?

 Observation #6 remove farm salmon and wild salmon numbers increase dramatically.

Summary

The decline of the Fraser sockeye began when salmon farms were put on their migration route. Only the sockeye that pass close by salmon farms declined. It was discovered that the extremely large numbers of Fraser sockeye dying were fighting a virus.  When a DFO scientist found strong evidence that the Fraser sockeye were dying of a virus similar to a disease outbreak in salmon farms, DFO terminated the research and muzzled her. When the salmon farms known to carry Salmon Leukemia were removed, traces of the virus vanished in the Fraser sockeye and a large number of Fraser sockeye returned. Today, we are seeing lower number of salmon farms and larger runs of sockeye.

If Canada is lucky enough to get 70 million Fraser sockeye back in the summer of 2014, we should do everything we can to figure out why.

If you fell to the ground every now and then with a high fever, but then had a few good days, wouldn't you want to know why there were good days and bad days? The immune systems of the 2014 Fraser sockeye need to be extensively profiled so we can learn if they are fighting the same virus as the runs that collapsed.  Let's do what we can to figure this out so every year is a good year.

 FYI - Canada is planning a farmed salmon expansion:

"... in British Columbia we're in a position now where I think the scenarios and signals are all positive, we think anyway. The industry is getting ready for a bit of a take-off there." Trevor Swerdfager, DFO to a Senate Committee Feb. 25, 2014

Suggesting salmon farms are killing wild salmon is a politically very unpopular hypothesis, even though this effect has been reported worldwide (Ford & Myers 2008). Most Canadian scientists will not risk their careers researching it and the ones who have, have suffered. However, the pattern remains.  To be clear, I am not stating this information proves salmon farms are killing off wild salmon, what I am saying is these correlations are extremely strong, they are being ignored and this behaviour is inexcusably poor management.

We are among the luckiest people on earth to still have these salmon.  It is up to the generations who are here on scene to ensure these fish thrive to the benefit of all who come after us, our economy and the ecology of BC.  Wild salmon feed the trees that make the oxygen we breath.

alexandra morton